Why is patience an important trait in predicting events?

Why players must be patient

Patience-the ability to accept or tolerate delays, problems, or suffering without getting annoyed or worried-is often overlooked as a key component of making money on forecasts. Being able to calculate mathematical expectations is certainly important, but in an environment that can be influenced by chance and luck, players also need to have patience.

The Law of Large Numbers

Perhaps the best way to explain how important patience is in predictions. Jacob Bernoulli’s theorem is based on the principle of probability distribution. In terms of predictions, it would be to expect a coin to go heads or tails, or the roulette wheel to stop on red or black an even number of times within a limited sample.

Understanding the consequences of cognitive distortions

Players may be aware of common traps that people fall into, understand what a player error is, and know that (assuming they have an advantage) they will make money if they wait long enough. However, certain cognitive distortions can interfere with this logical reasoning.

Short-term profits vs. long-term success

One cognitive distortion that patience can help players control is hyperbolic discounting-the tendency to choose an immediate win over a larger win that will take longer to achieve.

Technology makes us impatient

Outside of the world of predictions, advances in technology have made buying goods and meeting needs easier than ever. You can order a pizza at the touch of a button, you don’t have to leave home to shop, and even ordering a cab requires less effort than before.

Expectations are destined to come true

In short, players need to be patient and “see the big picture. If you have a positive mathematical expectation, but you are still making losses, you need to understand that it is simply a sequence of losses in a larger sample that will make a profit.

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Polars.io

Polars.io — The new DeFi concept for the Prediction Market.