Why is patience an important trait in predicting events?

3 min readAug 11, 2022

Not everyone predicts for the same reasons; there are many different reasons why we try to predict a particular event, but regardless of motivation, if you want to make a steady profit, it is helpful to stick to certain rules.

Why players must be patient

Patience-the ability to accept or tolerate delays, problems, or suffering without getting annoyed or worried-is often overlooked as a key component of making money on forecasts. Being able to calculate mathematical expectations is certainly important, but in an environment that can be influenced by chance and luck, players also need to have patience.

The Law of Large Numbers

Perhaps the best way to explain how important patience is in predictions. Jacob Bernoulli’s theorem is based on the principle of probability distribution. In terms of predictions, it would be to expect a coin to go heads or tails, or the roulette wheel to stop on red or black an even number of times within a limited sample.

Of course, at some point, things like coin flipping and the roulette wheel will even out. Likewise, if a player has the advantage, in the form of careful analysis and the basics of successful prediction, instances of chance and luck (at some point in time) will even out. It just takes patience not to limit the sample size within which this expectation will be realized.

It is important to understand that if you have an advantage, you still need to be prepared to wait for positive results.

Understanding the consequences of cognitive distortions

Players may be aware of common traps that people fall into, understand what a player error is, and know that (assuming they have an advantage) they will make money if they wait long enough. However, certain cognitive distortions can interfere with this logical reasoning.

Short-term profits vs. long-term success

One cognitive distortion that patience can help players control is hyperbolic discounting-the tendency to choose an immediate win over a larger win that will take longer to achieve.

Some players want instant big winnings and bet their entire maximum balance immediately, even if there is a great risk of going broke. They do not care that they are not at all familiar with the type of event in which they are participating and they cannot make an accurate prediction.

Others will participate in events in which they believe they have more than 50% success, sticking to a strictly set amount of tokens for each prediction after losses to make up for all previous failures.

Technology makes us impatient

Outside of the world of predictions, advances in technology have made buying goods and meeting needs easier than ever. You can order a pizza at the touch of a button, you don’t have to leave home to shop, and even ordering a cab requires less effort than before.

This desire for instant gratification has also touched profit-making.

Expectations are destined to come true

In short, players need to be patient and “see the big picture. If you have a positive mathematical expectation, but you are still making losses, you need to understand that it is simply a sequence of losses in a larger sample that will make a profit.

Predicting is about making a profit through making the right choices, finding a positive mathematical expectation, and understanding events. However, in addition to the “winning formula,” you must be patient enough to see the results you want — forecasting is not a lottery; you will not become a millionaire overnight.


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