Prime rates for forecasting and decision making

How to use prime rate, checklist:

  1. Identify which situations from the past are similar to the situation you want to better understand or predict.
  2. Identify relevant statistics from those similar situations.
  3. Think about which prime rates are most informative and most appropriate for the situation you encountered, and weigh them higher than the other prime rates.
  4. Combine the simple bets you found into a total probability. For example, if you have two simple bets, one of which is 25% and the other 10%, you would average them to 17.5%. But by doing step 3, you may find that the first bet is more similar and informative, so you can give it more weight (for example, by increasing the 17.5% to 20%).
  5. In your final prediction, apply the prime rates you found and combined. This is the most important step, because it’s surprisingly easy to do all the work of determining good prime rates and yet forget to apply them when needed.


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