INTUITIVE AND RATIONAL FORECASTING

How does intuition work?

Many scholars propose a dual process theory: decision-making processes are divided into intuitive (empirical or implicit) and analytical (rational or intentional).

When should you use intuition rather than analysis?

The most important condition is expertise . If you are just starting to take your first steps in forecasting, your intuition about whether your forecast is accurate will not be successful — you have no prior knowledge on which to base a correct decision.

Bottom line

Ultimately, perhaps we should use both intuition and analysis. There are times when intuition helps narrow down options, which can then be analyzed logically and rationally. Or vice versa: an initial detailed analysis may reveal several options that seem equally good, and it takes intuition to choose the right one. But before you decide to trust your intuition, ask yourself: am I an expert? Is the problem unstructured? And how much time do I have to choose?

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