History of the prediction markets: where did the fashion for prophecy come from?

What is the prediction market?

A prediction market is a market in which people can trade contracts whose payment depends on the outcome of unknown future events. The market prices formed on the basis of these contracts can be seen as a kind of collective prediction by market participants. These prices are based on individual expectations and the willingness of investors to put their money on the line in the name of these expectations.

A brief history of the prediction markets.

Now we will look at how the prediction market developed and what directions and goals it pursued.

Here are examples of contracts IEM has traded since June 6, 2006.

  • (Event Outcome 1) — $1 if the Democratic candidate receives a majority of the votes cast for the two major parties in the 2008 U.S. presidential election, $0 otherwise.
  • (Event Outcome 2) — $1 if the Republican candidate receives a majority of the electoral votes cast for the two major parties in the 2008 U.S. presidential election, $0 otherwise.

Polars — a new milestone in the development of prediction markets

With the emergence and development of blockchain technology, more and more financial structures are moving to a decentralized scheme of operation. Prediction markets are no exception, decentralization has made it possible to move to a new level. Prediction markets can now operate without control by any one party or operator. Typically, these markets operate through blockchain-based smart contracts that can be executed independently to distribute payouts.

POLARS retains all the benefits of working on a blockchain:

  • Blockchain-based RPs cannot be destroyed by a simple ban;
  • Blockchain-based PSDs are radically better protected against misrepresentation of results; they are transparent. It has no central leadership that can be bribed;
  • Blockchain RPs can provide a high degree of anonymity to participants, allowing them to voice the most unpopular and disapproving opinions.


The new DeFi platform for creating secure polar tokens, the price of which depends on the results of specific external events. Within the POLARS platform, users can buy, sell and exchange polar tokens, as well as participate in the distribution of the platform’s commission income.



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